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Democrats’ generic ballot lead shrinking days before midterm elections: poll

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A new poll finds that Democrats’ lead over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot has dropped threefold since August in yet another sign of the GOP’s momentum advantage with less than a week to go until Election Day. 

The Yahoo News/YouGov survey has captured the downward spiral of the Democratic Party since August, when Democrats led by 6 points in the generic congressional ballot. In late September, the same poll saw Democrats’ lead slip to 4 points. And now in the final Yahoo News/YouGov poll before the Nov. 8 midterm elections, the Democrats’ lead is down to 2 points. 

The survey released on Thursday found that among 1,641 registered voters, 46% say they will vote Democrat and 44% say they will vote Republican. It’s effectively a tie, as the poll’s margin for error is 2.7 percentage points. 

Among those who have already voted or say they will “definitely vote” on Election Day, 49% said they would vote for a Democrat, and 47% said Republican.

The poll also found that voter enthusiasm is favoring Republicans despite more early voting participants saying they voted for Democrats. 

Vice President Kamala Harris, Gov. Kathy Hochul and Secretary Hillary Clinton rallied potential voters at Barnard College yesterday.
Debra L Rothenberg/Shutterstock

Among registered Democratic voters, 74% have either already voted or say they will “definitely” vote. The number is 7 points higher for registered Republicans, with 81% saying they’ve already voted or will definitely vote.

Other recent polls have also shown Republicans surging and overtaking Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. 

Voters fill out mail-in ballots at the Board of Elections office in the Allegheny County Office Building on Nov. 3, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
The latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll was conducted from Oct. 27-31.
Getty Images

A Wall Street Journal poll released on Tuesday found Republicans leading by 2 points and a Suffolk University-USA Today poll from last week showed the GOP up by 4 points.

The Yahoo News/YouGov poll also measured what issue voters care about the most, and like numerous other surveys, inflation was cited as the top issue by 38% of voters.  

Also spelling trouble for Democrats, a full 63% of voters said that inflation is “getting worse,” and only 17% said that it’s “getting better.” Republicans also beat Democrats by a wide margin, 43% to 34%,  on the question of which party would do a “better job” on inflation.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 27 to Oct. 31.

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